Battle

Again the arrows, which are just goofy representations of bear flags, prove to play out. On the chart, I am starting to dim the annotations after the moves materialize.

Oof. This week was tough. Positives: we rallied near 380 SPY (the .618 fibonacci level); Negatives: everything else.

A lot of people are looking for capitulation. This is liquidation. There are already firms blowing up, and you can see it in the price action: stair stepping down every 15 minutes.

I’m often discussing with friends this year’s winners: oil & agriculture. Despite the heavy influence from the war in Ukraine, they benefit from high inflation. If you’re in pretty much anything else, you’re getting smoked. Retail company earnings are painting a bleak picture for the consumer. Consumer credit is increasing (more credit cards, less cash). These are not the makings of a strong overall market.

Let the diamond hand memes flow.

Oil – I won’t continue to state the macro bull case. I think despite some chartists calling for oil to top out, we’re going higher. I’ll eat oil company dips…the market is scary right now, but I’m confident here. It is fun to see the chart interact so well with fibonacci and weekly levels.

All annotations are from past charts unless noted – check out prior posts!

Bitcoin – look how tight it is trading in this range, on a slow downtrend. The chart feels like it wants to break down, and I can’t think of a positive catalyst other than possible strong performance from the Nasdaq. My next price level is 23,390. Still hodling with the crypto fam, though.