B-Side Pizza - Hotel Ziggy (West Hollywood, CA)

The Ultimate Los Angeles Pizza Tour - Curated by Alessandra

∙ BBQ CHICKEN PIZZA (bbq chicken, crispy shallots, bbq sauce, hot honey and buttermilk ranch) ∙ CACIO E PEPE PIZZA (pecorino, parmesan reggiano, fresh mozzerella, cracked black pepper, olive oil, finished with arugula dressed with lemon vinaigrette) ∙ CALABRESE (red sauce, spicy calabrese ham, fresno chilies, fresh mozzarella, pecorino romano) ∙ MEAT LOVERS (red sauce, shredded mozzarella, fresh mozzarella, italian sausage, pepperoni, meatballs, bacon) ∙ WHITE PIZZA (shredded mozzarella, scallop potato, garlic confit, fresh mozzarella, chopped parmesan cheese) ∙

The first stop on The Ultimate LA Pizza Tour, curated by my love. I’ve never been a huge fan of LA, but my Italian guide had selected some of the best spots for pizza. We did not expect to begin the 4 stop tour in 2 days with 5 pies. At the hotel we were staying, there just so happened to be a pizza restaurant on-site.

Nothing but praise and gratitude for the Hotel Ziggy team, who put on an absolute show to start the tour. Thank you so much for the hospitality and delightful pizza tasting experience.

The team made sure we wouldn’t miss a single element of their mastery. Boasting the best pizza in West Hollywood, they certainly showed out. Now on to the pies:

BBQ Chicken

Amazing. As my love said, this is the pizza you visit a restaurant for. I am so pleasantly surprised. I typically avoid BBQ sauce bases (given how dominant the flavor can be), yet I’m so happy I didn’t miss out here. The sauce isn’t overpowering at all – lightly tangy & gracefully smooth. I love hot honey – a fantastic addition that only highlights the sauce instead of making it too sweet. The pie is incredible. The onions…wow – the fried onions provide the tender succulent umami crunch you crave. The dough is a bit thick, somewhat bready, but not stale whatsoever. If nothing else, it feels necessary to support such a serious serving. The chicken is juicy and tender, not overcooked, nor rubbery at all. Well done by the chef. The buttermilk ranch counters the BBQ sauce so well. Again, visit Ziggy to listen to some jams and go to B-Side for the BBQ Chicken pizza.

Meat Lovers

The crust is lighter and thinner. I’m a sucker for cupped pepperonis – indicative of a natural casing which shrinks faster than the ronis while cooking. The sausage is tender and kind of spicy. While the pie is cheesier than the last, it’s still great. IMO, 2nd best crust behind the cacio e pepe.

Calabrese

This pie is EN FUEGO – it will light you on fire like an avid arsonist. Fair warning to you softies – grab a glass of milk, because these chili’s don’t mess around. My lady thinks it is salami as opposed to ham, but it is great nonetheless. The pecorino is a nice touch to dull the heat – a crucial addition to the fire pie.

Cacio e Pepe

The lemon vinaigrette hits immediately…it is fairly distracting. That said, the zesty touch cuts the cheese nicely. Arugula is perfect for this pie – the slightly peppery ruffage gives it the natural pepe flavor. The crust is a bit crunchier than the others – the pizza let’s it shine with how subtle the flavors are. Perhaps a little less vinaigrette? Maybe I’m the one who is soft.

White Pizza

This pie is garlic forward. Sorry, no makeout session for you after this one. The potatoes are very creative – thinly sliced, and have a bit of a crunch following the cook. The crust with the garlic is the star here – fuck your dominoes herb crust.

Result

Don’t order five pizzas for two people. Just don’t do it. We ate the entire BBQ chicken pizza, and half of the rest. I’ve never been a white pizza guy, but it was fun to try the cacio e pepe and their white pizza. The toppings were very creative. I’m pretty good with spicy food, but the Calabrese was a little much for me. I still ate the entire half (after removing a few chilis). I don’t know if the meat lovers was just pepperoni and sausage, or if it was a different pie. Old trusty gets it done once again. Obviously the BBQ Chicken pizza is the winner.

One hell of a way to begin a pizza tour – courtesy of the fantastic team at Hotel Ziggy. Great spot. Visit for the BBQ chicken pizza!

by Nick

In Bocca Al Lupo (Washington, DC)

Landslide victory for best DC pizza. One of my new favorite pizzas, right in my backyard.

∙ In Bocca Al Lupo (pomodoro, salsa verde Romana, sun dried tomatoes, pulled buffalo mozzarella), Margherita (mozzarella, pomodoro), Bresaola Rughetta e Parmigiano (thin pizza dough with bresaola, arugula and parmesan) ∙

First of all, acknowledge and appreciate if you’re being served the owner. Then bow down the new master of the DC pizza.

We started with Italian originals, beginning with a wonderful bruschetta con pomodoro. Followed by an awesome app – the suppli al telefono – named after the appearance similar to a cheesy telephone when tearing the roll in half. Followed by my new favorite thing in the world – crocchette di patate. THIS IS INCREDIBLE (google it), and phenomenally prepared, according to my beautiful Italian guide.

Before we get into the pizza – let’s differentiate. This is Roman pizza – subtly, yet greatly different from Neapolitan pizza – it hits every note I’ve ever needed. Firm, yet pliable crust supports a pizza like you’ve never seen.

In Bocca Al Lupo

The sun dried tomatoes melt in your mouth…the first I’ve ever had that weren’t tough. The combination of the olive oil and buff mozz is to die for. Some of the best buffalo mozzarella I’ve ever had. The saltiness of the tomatoes bounces so well off of the fresh cheese. I thought I’ve had delicate sauce prior, but if you get a bite of sauce alone, you can appreciate how truly amazing it is.

We haven’t mentioned the most memorable element – salsa verde Romana – amazing. Parsley, olive oil and garlic (etc) amalgamated to create saucy bliss.

Margherita

Thin crust doesn’t even begin to cover it – despite the supremely fresh imported ingredients on top, the crust is the star of the show. The best balanced pizza ever – crust so incredibly light, yet supports the pizza better than I’ve seen prior on a margherita. It feels odd to admit that my favorite margherita isn’t Neapolitan at all, but in fact, Roman.

Focaccia Bresaola Rughetta e Parmiggiano

The crust floats like air. No sauce no nothing. My lady says it needs olive oil. The benefit of no sauce, oil, etc is the degree to which the airy crust shines.

The Bresaola is next level – fuck your pepperoni pizza – subtle, not too rich, and in no way fatty. It will change your mind about Italian cold cuts. The combination is beautiful – it’s effectively a simplistic, yet superior salad served on top of the finest crust you’ve ever had.

by Nick

Fox's Den (Annapolis, MD)

∙ Pepperoni & Pepperoncini (pepperoncini, pepperoni, marina, mozzarella, parmesan, mint), Sausage Party (basil pesto, Calabrian chili oil, crumbled Italian sausage, mozzarella, caramelized onions, parmesan)  ∙

Uhh…sausage party? Hilarious flick, serious pizza. The combination of caramelized onions with freshly cooked sausage is incredible. Is it the addition of chili oil on a delicious pesto base? Yes. This is the pie you visit a restaurant for.

by Nick

Menomale (Washington, DC)

∙ Margherita, Diavola (DOP San Marzano tomatoes, Fior di latte mozzarella, basil, spicy salami, red peppers), Prosciutto Cotto (Prosciutto cotto (ham), mushrooms, DOP San Marzano tomatoes, basil, Fior di latte mozzarella, pinch of parmesan, EVOO)  ∙

♫ When the moon hits your eye
Like a big pizza pie, that’s amore ♫

Let’s start with the delightful Falanghina Beneventana requested by the most soothing & sultry authentic accent you’ve ever heard. Words elegantly delivered by the finest native Italian pizza tour guide you can imagine. When the world starts to shine, it’s not too much wine, it’s amore. I’d like to order this forever, please.

I’m immediately reminded of Pupatella, which would make sense as both restaurants are AVPN (Associazione Verace Pizza Napoletana) certified. My novice intuition tells me it’s undercooked, but the bottom of the crust is beautifully leopard printed. Yes, the marg got the job done. Fior di latte moz was deliciously fresh and the San Marzano sauce was delicate. The margherita was the first pie gone, if that’s even a question. Of course, the diavola spicy salami impressed. By all means, I will be returning with the same beautiful arm-candy to grace American pizza shops.

by Nick

Result

Result • October 2

This post is a follow-up to “Education,” where we built an AAPL daily chart and explained concepts referred to here.

Here is the August 27 AAPL chart built with EMAs, Fibonaccis, & Volume Profile. I thought it would be helpful to review the results and see how the tools work.

The annotated chart above from six trading days later on September 6.

EMA Crossover – the bearish signal of the shorter EMA crossing under the longer EMA turns the cloud red. The trend flip occurs many days after the recent peak because EMAs are lagging indicators.

Fibonacci ‘Tests’ – note the candle interactions with Fibonacci levels, and look for confirmation of the level holding. Note the .38 tests & fail, as well as the .50 test.

Volume Pivot – The large volume shelf on the profile (static from Aug 27) serves as a pivot from support to resistance on the last candle. In the top chart, the last candle pushed down through a volume node on significant volume. The target would’ve been the next volume node below it. You don’t need to wait for an indicator to point out that idea when using VPA.

These tools identified the target. My eyes were immediately drawn to the golden zone (.618-.65 fibs), a key retracement area for fibonacci traders. The ‘volume desert’ (low volume region on profile) above the zone was another useful signal. That volume gap was also supported by the VPOC (highest volume in the histogram). The areas together – VPOC & golden pocket – showed confluence, strengthening conviction in the technical target.

Disclaimer: I’m not short AAPL (prefer SPX puts). I wasn’t, nor will I ever recommend you do anything with your money.

These tools informed a bearish thesis on AAPL with a target of the golden pocket & VPOC. A bounce out of that region on strong volume would have been a near-term bullish signal. A failure of that region confirms the bearish thesis and warrants a lower target. Every signal needs to be confirmed with follow through. One candle does not suffice.

The above Sept 30 chart reviews the Sept 6 target, 24 trading days after the original chart. Note that the EMA trend was broken only once, and the next daily candle respected the line perfectly. The EMAs were tested and held again a few days later. The golden pocket & volume point of control served as near (not exact) support for the stock on the hammer candle followed by a bullish engulfing candle. The 3rd from last candle bounced on high volume in that region. The following candle failed that region at open, and the price has been plummeting since.

(slide picture left to right)

Hopefully I’ve understandably displayed these tools and clearly explained my interpretation of their movements. I find these tools useful, and think everyone should find tools which work for them.

by Nick

Education

Education • August 27

Building an AAPL daily chart

Volume Price Analysis (VPA) is the study of volume and candles alone. Naked charting simplifies the perspective and ends reliance on indicators. Technical indicators (like moving averages) are equations of historical prices – lagging tools by design. VPA is the identification of specific candle types and patterns paired with significant volume. Finding confluence with levels across multiple timeframes (hours, days, weeks) makes a blank chart easier to read, and can help identify supply and demand levels (the king of charting and trading).
Check the prior posts to see the levels I’ve drawn using VPA over time. It’s a practice you don’t perfect, but I enjoy learning.

Volume Profiles show volume by price (y axis) across a specified timeframe, whereas most are used to seeing volume displayed by time (x axis). It is helpful to gauge “where the bodies lie,” or where significant volume has traded. It is also VPA appropriate 🙂 I don’t know how I’ve ever looked at charts without them.
  • Volume Point of Control (VPOC) – highest volume bar in the histogram
  • Value Area – 70% of the volume within the histogram, bracketed by the:
    • Value Area High (VAH) & Value Area Low (VAL)

Moving Averages are lines averaging prior ranges of prices, smoothing the price volatility. Two types:
  • Simple (SMA) – average price of timeframe specified
  • Exponential (EMA) – a higher weight of recent prices calculating the average

One could argue both, either, or neither SMA/EMA levels are valid. The 200 day SMA (mean of the last 200 days) is a highly psychological long term trend commonly discussed in financial press. My favorite EMAs are the 9 & 20. I like shading between the EMA spread, creating clouds – a visual tool that slaps you in the face with a trend.

Fibonaccis are a set of ratios based on the numerical sequence. Named after the Italian mathematician who brought the ancient Indian study home, fibs [as they’re called] are an incredible tool. I plan to opine on the subject in another post.

(slide picture left to right)

Putting it all together looks kind of busy, right? Or does it add context? Using only a few tools helps to filter out the noise. That’s why I like to have my annotation color settings in higher transparency. Otherwise, it’s best to just do it naked. Always good advice.

by Nick

Summer

Summer • July 6

Most summers are boring and have very low liquidity. Not much point to opine on trends when there’s no volume showing money put to work. Fed minutes (not meeting) were released today, yet volume was lower than yesterday. Not much to note, but still cool to see the chart interact with those levels.

Well…maybe we could mention oil getting absolutely smoked on recession fears as yields blow off and the dollar continues to rip. Sure there are things to discuss…but everyone is at the Hamptons.

by Nick

Distribution

Distribution • June 13

Distribution means many things in finance and markets, but in charting it can be referred to as a consolidation period that breaks down. As the market agrees on a price, it trades in a range. If the chart breaks out upward, it is called accumulation. This can be described as distribution. Everyone who got long in the region between the red brackets got smoked. On the 15 minute SPY chart you see 8 days of low volume consolidation. All of the volume came on the closing prints – on May 31, the market-on-close order was over $4b to the buy side. You could call it end of month window dressing, options expiration, whatever. I see it as a lot of people getting bagged. The greatest lesson in trading is to not baghold a bad trade – take the loss. “We’re in the market to make money, not to be right.”

Well that was a terrible time to adjust the regression channel. Today the market got smoked as the 10 yr moved to 3.35, while both the golden pocket fibs and regression channel acted as resistance. Your next levels lower are large volume days and support areas. We’ll see what the Fed does Wednesday. Who knows if Powell has the stones for a 75bp hike…a guy can dream.

Oil

Although the equities look rough, the commodity remains strong.

Bitcoin

Crypto is absolutely falling apart. The large US corporations, El Salvador, and most retail wallets are underwater on their BTC investments. The rest of the crypto complex also looks like death. I’ll start adding to ETH after it breaks 1000.

by Nick

Learning

Learning • May 30

I had to clean up the chart – it was becoming difficult to look at. I said in this prior post that I don’t think junking up a chart with a bunch of annotations adds value. I disregarded my own perspective for educational and entertainment values.

Important to note: I adjusted the regression channel. The prior trend was a ~76° angle from Jan 3 to Feb 25. The new regression is ~63° from Jan 3 to May 12. It’s only hopeful to rely on an annotation months after the fact unless you’re precisely correct.
This adjustment is an attempt to be constructive. You know the phrase describing markets as “up and to the right,” what can easily be perceived as a 45° angle. A 76° regression shapes up for a really rough market. You better hope the selling doesn’t become more aggressive.
Things are ugly, but not awful. Look at the labor market – plenty of unfilled jobs. That said, your next fear might be the housing market. If the housing market blows up, all bets are off. Bull case: basic economics. Supply is low, and as millennials [and the ‘Boomer’ population, for that matter] age, demand will continue to be high. Still, it appears the days of over-bid-site-unseen-cash-offers in the real estate market are over.
Confluence means a junction of two rivers, or an act or process of merging. In charting, confluence is the confirmation of two converging patterns. Look at the confluence on the chart between the new regression channel and the ‘golden pocket’ of the fibonacci’s (0.618-0.65 region). The dip through the new channel, which has been bought up three times prior this year, is also a clean bounce out of the golden pocket.
Capitulation means the action of surrendering or ceasing to resist an opponent or demand. A common phrase uttered in bear markets, it describes indiscriminate selling all around. I don’t think we’ve seen it in this market. I think the acceleration of this downtrend resulting from other than an exogenous factor (Geopolitical example: Putin utilizing chemical weapons) implies something seriously negative. In my view: it would entail that growth is slowing faster, inflation is increasing more rapidly, and the Fed is in an even tighter spot. Based on the recent Powell press conference and Fed meeting minutes, it appears the fragility of markets and impending wealth effect have pushed for a relatively hawkish rhetoric.
The Fed is still raising rates. I think this downtrend will endure until the data changes or the Fed is done raising rates. Quantitative tightening begins July 1 when the Fed starts to reduce its balance sheet.

This is a weekly chart going back to the October 2020 technical breakout of Feb 2020 high consolidation. As mentioned before, the ‘golden pocket’ (0.618-0.65) [is what fibonacci fans believe] provides a good risk-reward area in a trend to enter a trade. Bulls successfully defended this region (380-385) two weeks ago. I think the market can move to SPY 420, although I believe in the defense of the ~428 resistance level. You’re in a pretty clear region at this point: 385-425.

Oil

Aaaand breakout. I’m looking for 125. Remember, surging oil price is negative for hopes in an overall market rebound.

Bitcoin

Does BTC want to break out of this consolidation channel?! It shows hope for overall risk appetite in the market.

by Nick

Battle

Battle • May 22

Again the arrows, which are just goofy representations of bear flags, prove to play out. On the chart, I am starting to dim the annotations after the moves materialize.

Oof. This week was tough. Positives: we rallied near 380 SPY (the .618 fibonacci level); Negatives: everything else.

A lot of people are looking for capitulation. This is liquidation. There are already firms blowing up, and you can see it in the price action: stair stepping down every 15 minutes.

I’m often discussing with friends this year’s winners: oil & agriculture. Despite the heavy influence from the war in Ukraine, they benefit from high inflation. If you’re in pretty much anything else, you’re getting smoked. Retail company earnings are painting a bleak picture for the consumer. Consumer credit is increasing (more credit cards, less cash). These are not the makings of a strong overall market.

Let the diamond hand memes flow.

Oil – I won’t continue to state the macro bull case. I think despite some chartists calling for oil to top out, we’re going higher. I’ll eat oil company dips…the market is scary right now, but I’m confident here. It is fun to see the chart interact so well with fibonacci and weekly levels.

All annotations are from past charts unless noted – check out prior posts!

Bitcoin – look how tight it is trading in this range, on a slow downtrend. The chart feels like it wants to break down, and I can’t think of a positive catalyst other than possible strong performance from the Nasdaq. My next price level is 23,390. Still hodling with the crypto fam, though.

by Nick