Imbriglio's Pizzeria Napoletana (Newport, RI)
∙ Loretta: (Margherita – San Marzano Tomatoes, Fresh Mozzarella, Fresh Basil, Parmigiano Reggiano, Extra Virgin Olive Oil) ∙
I rolled into Sardella’s Restaurant around closing time to see if I could snag an Imbriglio’s pie while traveling to Newport for work. The staff was thankfully accommodative – note: if you show up before closing, you better be extremely considerate because the staff wants, and deserves, to go home. I had a martini and hung out with the bartender while I waited for the pizza to finish.
I was immediately hit with vibes of Rye Brook (NY), where I worked and ate many a pie. The crust was delicious – supportive as you’d hope from a Neapolitan, but in no way tough. The sauce flavors were delicate and fantastic, which is to be expected from San Marzanos. The parmigiano was a very nice touch – appreciated even from someone like me who isn’t too cheesy. Was the basil a little worse for the wear? Sure, but who cares? It was late, and honestly, basil grows like a weed. If you make pizza at home and don’t have a basil plant, what are you doing with your life?
I was thoroughly impressed by the production, especially when considering the staff let me slip in right before close.
Strength
Strength • March 27
Things are firming up – is the market climbing a wall of worry? Bear market rally? I’m looking for a retrace (forming a higher low) – which is what you want if you’re hoping for a healthy move. The return of the meme stock is concerning. The continued oversold-growth-stock rip doesn’t feel incredible. Kind of cherry-picking, but I won’t be chasing up here.
Charts
*Disclaimer: While in the markets for over a decade now, I haven’t been drawing on charts but a few years. I’m not a technical analyst, just a trader/investor who enjoys technical analysis. There is no value in drawing a bunch of indicators all over a chart. I’m just having fun.
Charts • March 14
Quick start with oil. Drew these weekly levels going back to 2008 a few weeks ago. It still amazes me today how large volume levels left on the chart affect current price….regardless of how many times it works. Hourly chart blown up to display price interacting with the levels.
Quick on gold – today, I drew these weekly lines going back to 2011 & Aug 2020. Furthering the point in one of my favorite chart drawing concepts I learned a couple years ago. “Look left,” as they say. Hourly chart.
OKAY SPY. I got really cute with this chart – bear with me. First, I don’t think drawing junk all over a chart brings impact, if nothing else, it is unnecessarily distracting. The blue/red channel is one I drew a few weeks ago, just extending the right of the channel on the chart. Volume profiles display volume interacting with price points over the period you’re viewing. I drew two: The breakout in April 2021 through year end (Left), and YTD (Right).
Not necessarily a realistic indicator of demand and supply, consider it a chart of where the bodies lie. I started learning Volume Price Analysis a few years ago – the art of reading candles and volume alone. The volume profile is an applicable part of this process. Notice how the prior Volume Point of Control (VPOC – solid red line) lines up almost perfectly with current price (thin dotted red line).
Things are breaking down. Rothschild: “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” While a true statement, I’d prefer to miss a little upside waiting for clarity, than attempt to perfectly catch the ‘bottom.’
Bear...ish?
Bear...ish? • March 4
Russia. Fed. Oil. Dollar. Volatility. Oooh the bears are coming out of the woods. Not necessarily a sadistic view (human perspective on the events in Europe aside – we’re talking markets), but the negativity is beginning to feel comforting. The ebullience of up and to the right charts doesn’t have the same effect on my comfort. Volatility shakes out weak hands; strong hands in terrible names pay the price. Great quote – there is no bad weather, only bad clothing. If your names are junk (in a rising rate/geopolitical volatility-gripped market), you’re wearing them.
No need to be slow on the oil move, my call last week was blown out on MONDAY. Woof. She’s going higher too – new lines added above (monthly and 1 hour charts).
Bearish trades abound, with the ripping dollar and surging gold prices. Bye bye bitcoin, your safe haven/inflation hedge is a risk asset in sheep’s clothing.
Here’s the beauty of markets – we won’t know how much of the move in gold and the dollar is a result of Russian capital flows, and how much of it is a bearish investment bet until we see the other side.
Weekend check (we could get cute with charts, but there are plenty of charts we could play with); approximate levels:
- WTI Crude: 115
- Gold: 1970
- US Dollar: 98.5
- US10 Yr Yield: 1.73
- VIX: 32
The volatility in all markets have been astounding. Stay safe, my friends.
Risk
Risk • February 26
Endurance in the game is directly correlated to taking calculated risks. If you look around, you have plenty of risk. The announcement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t seem to shock the markets. The NYSE Floor legend Art Cashin said something to the effect of ‘Sell the news of war and buy the bombs.’ If you think that’s coarse, you’re in the wrong room. Let’s soften it a bit. Counter-trend rally. Short squeeze. Remember, we’re still getting earnings – companies are shining or flaming with the swiftness.
We’re all market participants. Perspective: I’m 35% cash across my retirement portfolios and 100% cash in my day trade/swing brokerage. I day traded upside calls on QQQ expiring today; I’m not adding to my Roth. I’d rather miss upside than catch downside. We’re waiting for trend correction, not rip-your-face-off bear rallies.
Look around at the risk. No need to be verbose – War & Fed. Pithy and poignant. Rapid inflation….a SERIOUS concern. Yeah – I said cash is a position in this market. No, I’m not a bear. I just don’t think we’re through.
Let’s get cute with some lines. I love this game.
- 1st Chart: Hourly SPY chart with a regression channel. Short term upside to ~450 and resistance at 475. Both psychological levels.
- 2nd Chart: Downtrend line with two of my assumptive ‘trading bands’ on a ‘positive’ basis.
I caveat the 2nd chart’s horizontal levels only because I think the SPY wants 400. It’s a nice psych level amidst a shaky market with rapid inflation and waning consumer confidence. Do the fading covid memories assist the CC picture? Of course. However, let’s not forget the stock market element of household wealth and influx of market participants in the past couple years.
Reminder: cash is a position, and in the summer we’ll likely have a lot more clarity. I’m waiting for a few more rate hikes, and now, more development out of Eastern Europe.
Ooh ooh – oil?? Toppy? Too much macro going on to tell – consolidation at (okay, near) the ~100 level is anyone’s guess as to breakout vs breakdown. Recent high at 100 and a half on the following WTI monthly chart. Longer term resistance at the 110 level. I’m bullish on the economic recovery and ensuing oil demand. That said, it’s my opinion that she needs to breathe a bit.
Inception
Inception · February 12
The trend is breaking down, my friends. Thank Bullard for his Thursday 2/10 100 bps by July comments. Thank the news on Friday about impending doom in Eastern Europe. Everyone thought we had until at least the end of the Olympics.
S&P500 (SPY) failing to hold on a weekly basis (EMAs rolling over), and critically breaking down on an intraday basis. Cash is a position in this market.
US10Y yield and the price of WTI have been on the radar for a while now. 10Y weekly and oil monthly below. Obvious questions: does the 10 yr consolidate at 2% until the next Fed meeting? How long does it take oil to get to 100, and then what?
Black Shirt Brewing Co and Craft Pizza Kitchen (Denver, CO)
∙ Four Horsemen: (Pepperoni, Roasted Chicken, Bacon, BSB Sausage) ∙
Margherita with Pepperoni ∙
Digestibility of the crust is everything. Absolutely everything. Listen – if the crust isn’t top notch, the pizza can’t be. The toppings were excellent as well. Very unexpected delightful pizza at a brewery with a few tables. Had a couple great IPAs, enjoyed a couple pies. Great stop in RiNo.
Galasso's Cucina Italiana Pizza & Restaurant (Lebanon, NJ)
Toni & Nick Reunion Pizza Tour ∙ Volume 1
∙ Brooklyn Style: (EVO & Fresh Garlic Marinated Plum Tomatoes, Cheese & Fresh Basil) ∙
Cheese slice ∙
This was the first stop on our pizza tour. My friend and I had been dreaming it up for years. Following a FB group chat question posed to pizza enthusiasts in the region, Toni had a refined list. Galasso’s absolutely crushed it out of the gates.
Carting me around, Toni and I showed up around noon. Galasso’s wasn’t ready for our excitement.
When trying to get a feel for a restaurant standard, you have to try their cheese slice. Ehem, It was FIRE. There’s obvious bias with this being the first restaurant on the tour, but the pizza was incredible. The Brooklyn slice came highly recommended, and I’m so incredibly happy that it did.
Cheese: the cheese is light and airy, as is the crust. Shredded basil below the cheese. Tomato sauce isn’t overpowering at all, a compliment that falls into the crust. The slice goes down easier than college girls. A fantastically simple slice.
Brooklyn style: the sauce on this pizza will blow your mind and mess your shorts. Thick dough but not bready, the crust has a beautiful crisp on the bottom. Shredded basil in the cheese. The sauce tastes just like San Marzano tomatoes, garlic and basil. When we left, I peered over into the sauce container and saw only those 3 ingredients.
Toscana Pizza (Allendale, NJ)
Toni & Nick Reunion Pizza Tour ∙ Volume 1
∙ Cheese slice ∙
The third stop on the tour is nestled inside this quaint area. We sat at the bar by the front window, watching pizza go by while my mind was blown by this slice.
The crust continues to amaze. The cheese is great, a fair amount, and piping hot as it pools on top of the slice. It’s not too much, but it’s more than my taste goes for. I’m just being soft, they should never change a thing. The sauce is plentiful as well, there’s no skimping here. The sauce doesn’t have any texture, but compliments the slice well. The crust just can’t be beat around here. The slice is amazing.
Natale's Italian Restaurant (Lebanon, NJ)
Toni & Nick Reunion Pizza Tour ∙ Volume 1
∙ Cheese slice ∙
We arrived to the second spot, and unsurprisingly it was empty given the time of day. Unfortunately I think the pie we had wasn’t terribly fresh. Luck of the draw!
The sauce is like actual sauce, as is the cheese. Not as airy; more pull to it. Tastes like your traditional hometown spot. The crust makes the slice. Thin and light, nice crisp, folds easily. Sauce has less texture almost blended and you can see the Italian spice seasoning in it. Slice does the job better than most, but doesn’t leave you with much. Would revisit at a busier time to see if it was just not as fresh as you would hope for – the crust was good, but folded with straight edges.
