Bear...ish?

Russia. Fed. Oil. Dollar. Volatility. Oooh the bears are coming out of the woods. Not necessarily a sadistic view (human perspective on the events in Europe aside – we’re talking markets), but the negativity is beginning to feel comforting. The ebullience of up and to the right charts doesn’t have the same effect on my comfort. Volatility shakes out weak hands; strong hands in terrible names pay the price. Great quote – there is no bad weather, only bad clothing. If your names are junk (in a rising rate/geopolitical volatility-gripped market), you’re wearing them.

No need to be slow on the oil move, my call last week was blown out on MONDAY. Woof. She’s going higher too – new lines added above (monthly and 1 hour charts).

Bearish trades abound, with the ripping dollar and surging gold prices. Bye bye bitcoin, your safe haven/inflation hedge is a risk asset in sheep’s clothing.

Here’s the beauty of markets – we won’t know how much of the move in gold and the dollar is a result of Russian capital flows, and how much of it is a bearish investment bet until we see the other side.

Weekend check (we could get cute with charts, but there are plenty of charts we could play with); approximate levels:

• WTI Crude: 115
• Gold: 1970
• US Dollar: 98.5
• US10 Yr Yield: 1.73
• VIX: 32

The volatility in all markets have been astounding. Stay safe, my friends.