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COT · CFTC
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Dealer net positioning, in σ
Standard deviations from each market’s own 2-year average. Beyond ±2σ is extreme.
Gold tracks commercial hedgers.
ES
+0.1σ
S&P 500
▼0.6 down from the prior week
neutral
NQ
-1.8σ
Nasdaq
▼0.9 down from the prior week
extended short
RTY
+0.2σ
Russell 2000
unch from the prior week
neutral
VIX
+0.8σ
VIX
▼0.3 down from the prior week
neutral
ZN
-1.6σ
10Y Note
▲0.2 up from the prior week
extended short
DX
-1.2σ
USD Index
unch from the prior week
extended short
BTC
-2.1σ
Bitcoin
▼0.2 down from the prior week
capitulation
GC
+1.7σ
Gold
unch from the prior week
commercials elevated high
Positions as of Tue Nov 3 · W45 · past week
MAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOV
W45
ES
S&P 500
+0.1σ
neutral
Dealers in S&P 500 futures sit close to their two-year average. Nothing stretched here.
Long and short here mean above or below the dealers’ own two-year average, not their net position.
- Measures
- Dealers
- Prior week
- +0.7σ
- 26-week range
- -0.4 to +1.1σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 0 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
NQ
Nasdaq
-1.8σ
extended short
Dealers in Nasdaq 100 futures are shorter than usual, 1.8σ below their two-year average.
Long and short here mean above or below the dealers’ own two-year average, not their net position.
- Measures
- Dealers
- Prior week
- -0.9σ
- 26-week range
- -1.8 to +2.4σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 4 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
RTY
Russell 2000
+0.2σ
neutral
Dealers in Russell 2000 futures sit close to their two-year average. Nothing stretched here.
Long and short here mean above or below the dealers’ own two-year average, not their net position.
- Measures
- Dealers
- Prior week
- +0.2σ
- 26-week range
- +0.2 to +1.4σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 0 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
VIX
VIX
+0.8σ
neutral
Dealers’ VIX position sits near its two-year average, so demand for protection looks normal.
VIX reads in reverse: a lower dealer position is the other side of investors buying protection.
- Measures
- Dealers
- Prior week
- +1.1σ
- 26-week range
- -0.2 to +1.4σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 0 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
ZN
10Y Note
-1.6σ
extended short
Dealers in 10-year Treasury futures are shorter than usual, 1.6σ below their two-year average.
Long and short here mean above or below the dealers’ own two-year average, not their net position.
- Measures
- Dealers
- Prior week
- -1.8σ
- 26-week range
- -2.8 to -0.9σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 7 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
DX
USD Index
-1.2σ
extended short
Dealers in US dollar index futures are shorter than usual, 1.2σ below their two-year average.
Long and short here mean above or below the dealers’ own two-year average, not their net position.
- Measures
- Dealers
- Prior week
- -1.2σ
- 26-week range
- -2.0 to -0.4σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 1 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
BTC
Bitcoin
-2.1σ
capitulation
Bitcoin dealers sit 2.1σ below their two-year average, past the −2σ line, at the low end of their range.
A negative σ means below the dealers’ own two-year average, not a net short.
- Measures
- Dealers
- Prior week
- -1.9σ
- 26-week range
- -2.1 to -0.2σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 1 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
GC
Gold
+1.7σ
commercials elevated high
Commercial hedgers in gold hold a smaller net short than usual, 1.7σ above their two-year average.
Gold’s tile measures commercial hedgers, not dealers. They are net short, so a higher σ means a smaller short.
- Measures
- Commercial hedgers
- Prior week
- +1.7σ
- 26-week range
- +0.6 to +2.2σ
- Weeks past ±2σ
- 1 of 26
Positions as of Tuesday. Who holds what, not where price goes next.
Institutional Positioning · COT Intelligence
The Commitments of Traders report is public, free, and almost nobody reads it.
I do. Every Friday my automated desk distills CFTC futures positioning (dealers, hedge funds, asset managers) into two weekly briefings. One for investors. One for professionals.
This week in one line · Pulse, Fri Nov 6
Nasdaq Positioning Tilted Before the Slide, and Bitcoin’s Dealer Cushion Is Down to Its Thinnest
STM://DESK/OVERVIEW
▮ ACTIVE
$ cot --week=45 --summary
DEALERSequity avg -0.48σ · 1 extreme: Bitcoin · 6 elevated: EUR, Gold, Nasdaq, SOFR 3M, UST 10Y, WTI Crude
LEV FUNDSNatural Gas -2.77σ · 4 crowded short
RATES2Y -1.12σ · 10Y -1.65σ
CRYPTOBTC capitulation -2.09σ · ETH -0.49σ
1 extreme position · 6 elevated positions · 19 active lev regimes · 4 concentration flags
I
For investors · Free · Weekly
Smart Money Pulse.
An approachable read on where smart money is leaning and which markets sit at historical extremes. Written for ETF investors, not futures traders, and translated into what it means for your portfolio.
► No jargon
► ETF-native framing
► 5-min briefing
► Fridays, after the CFTC release
From the latest Pulse · Fri Nov 6
The biggest change on this week’s board is in the Nasdaq. Dealers, the market makers who take the other side of everyone else’s trades, stretched their short from a moderate reading to an elevated one on the heaviest weekly shift of any market tracked.
II
For professionals · Free · Weekly
Liquidity
Trajectory.
The same data, unfiltered. Reported dealer positioning, leveraged fund divergences, week-over-week flow, cost basis levels, historical analogs, options positioning, and concentration flags across equities, volatility, rates, FX, crypto, and commodities.
COVERAGE
24 markets
METRICS
40+ per report
LENGTH
15-min deep dive
STATISTICS
z · pctl · analogs
Archive · COT Positioning
2026 · 73 POSTS
- W45 Nov 6 This weekPulse Nasdaq Positioning Tilted Before the Slide, and Bitcoin’s Dealer Cushion Is Down to Its ThinnestThe biggest change on this week’s board is in the Nasdaq. Dealers, the market makers who take the other side of everyone else’s trades, stretched their short from a moderate reading to an elevated one on the heaviest weekly shift of any market tracked.Trajectory Bitcoin dealers and leveraged funds both crossed into EXTREME this week (dealer z -1.86 to -2.09; lev z +1.89 to +2.11).Dealers run a structural long (net +479), so the move means that long has thinned to the bottom of its two-year range, not that dealers turned short; leveraged funds are net short outright (-2,591) but less short than usual.
- W44 Oct 30Pulse Dealers Have No Extreme Left, but Speculators Do in Natural Gas and the EuroDealers, the market makers who take the other side of everyone else’s trades, have no extreme reading anywhere on the board this week. The 10-Year Treasury, last week’s lone extreme, eased back out of it.Trajectory UST 10Y dealers eased from EXTREME to ELEVATED SHORT (dealer z -2.19 to -1.81), so no dealer reading sits at an extreme this week.The move came on a +52,202 covering week (event z +1.37), with asset managers holding the long (AM z +2.53).
- W43 Oct 24Pulse One Treasury Maturity Hits a Rare Short Extreme While the Fed Meets Next WeekThe 10-Year Treasury is the only market on the board where dealers sit at a true extreme this week, and it got there while the 5-Year went the other way. As of Tuesday, 10-Year dealers held one of the deepest net shorts in their two-year range, while 5-Year dealers pulled back sharply from theirs.Trajectory UST 10Y dealers stepped ELEVATED to EXTREME SHORT, the board’s one extreme dealer reading, while the 5Y released ELEVATED to MODERATE SHORT.The 10Y dealer z is -2.19 at the 1.9th percentile, with asset managers holding the long (AM z +2.41).
- W42 Oct 16Pulse The Bond Market’s Crowded Corner Moved to the 5-YearAs of Tuesday, Treasury positioning had found a new pressure point. Last week the 10-Year was the one maturity still pinned at an extreme; this week its dealers eased back a tier while dealers in the 5-Year Treasury added to their short at an unusually fast clip, landing near the bottom of their two-year range.Trajectory Treasury dealer short stress moved from the 10Y into the belly.UST 5Y dealers stepped MODERATE to ELEVATED SHORT on a WoW change of -82,152 contracts, an event z of -2.28 for a Monthly OpEx week and a flow z of -1.85, while UST 10Y dealers released EXTREME to ELEVATED SHORT.
© 2026 Stalk the Market · Briefings reviewed and published by me · Not investment advice · Trading involves risk · Disclosures (opens in a new tab)
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