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Liquidity
Trajectory.

The same data, unfiltered: reported dealer positioning, leveraged fund divergences, week-over-week flow, cost basis, analogs and options positioning across 24 markets.

Issues: 39
First issue: Feb 2026
Coverage: 24 markets · 6 asset classes
Cadence: Fridays, after the CFTC release

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Latest · W45 · Nov 6

Bitcoin dealers and leveraged funds both crossed into EXTREME this week (dealer z -1.86 to -2.09; lev z +1.89 to +2.11).

Dealers run a structural long (net +479), so the move means that long has thinned to the bottom of its two-year range, not that dealers turned short; leveraged funds are net short outright (-2,591) but less short than usual.

Read the W45 Trajectory

Earlier issues

Page 1 of 4

October 2026
W4410·30 UST 10Y dealers eased from EXTREME to ELEVATED SHORT (dealer z -2.19 to -1.81), so no dealer reading sits at an extreme this week. The move came on a +52,202 covering week (event z +1.37), with asset managers holding the long (AM z +2.53).
W4310·24 UST 10Y dealers stepped ELEVATED to EXTREME SHORT, the board’s one extreme dealer reading, while the 5Y released ELEVATED to MODERATE SHORT. The 10Y dealer z is -2.19 at the 1.9th percentile, with asset managers holding the long (AM z +2.41).
W4210·16 Treasury dealer short stress moved from the 10Y into the belly. UST 5Y dealers stepped MODERATE to ELEVATED SHORT on a WoW change of -82,152 contracts, an event z of -2.28 for a Monthly OpEx week and a flow z of -1.85, while UST 10Y dealers released EXTREME to ELEVATED SHORT.
W4110·09 The Treasury dealer short extreme broke across the 2Y and 5Y. UST 5Y dealers released two tiers from EXTREME to MODERATE SHORT on a flow z of +3.32 and UST 2Y dealers released EXTREME to ELEVATED SHORT on +2.52, both outsized with no FOMC or OpEx event nearby.
W4010·02 The dealer short extreme now runs the full 2Y-to-10Y span of the curve. UST 10Y and UST 2Y dealers both stepped from ELEVATED to EXTREME SHORT, joining the 5Y, and all three sit at the very bottom of their two-year range.
September 2026
W3909·25 Rates stress rotated into the belly of the curve. UST 5Y dealers stepped two tiers from MODERATE to EXTREME SHORT (z -1.45 to -2.10, the 1.0th percentile, WoW -77,974), the only new dealer extreme on the board, against leveraged funds held at the 99.0th percentile of their range (lev z +2.27, adding ~111,324/wk).
W3809·18 The rates curve is the board’s stress center and duration got heavier into the Fed. UST 2Y dealers dropped two tiers from MODERATE to EXTREME SHORT (z -1.19 to -2.04, the 1.0th percentile) on the largest single repositioning of the week (WoW -92,432, event z -2.75^), while UST 10Y dealers extended their EXTREME SHORT to z -2.78 at the 0.0th percentile (WoW -84,962, flow z -2.00).
W3709·11 Duration is the board’s stress center and it deepened. UST 10Y dealers pushed further into EXTREME SHORT (z -2.03 to -2.29), the 0.0th percentile of the two-year range, on a fourth straight week of net decline (WoW -47,349, net -634,446).
W3609·04 The rates curve stayed the board’s stress center, but the pressure moved. The UST 5Y released two tiers, dealers from EXTREME SHORT to MODERATE SHORT (z -2.19 to -1.12) on the largest rate-book repositioning of the week (flow z +2.65^, WoW +114,590 contracts), while the 10Y held its EXTREME SHORT at the 0.0th percentile (z -2.03).