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Smart Money Pulse.
An approachable read on where smart money is leaning and which markets sit at historical extremes. Written for ETF investors, not futures traders.
- Issues
- 34
- First issue
- Mar 2026
- Cadence
- Fridays, after the CFTC release
Issues
Page 4 of 4- April 2026
- W1504·11 The Great Equity Split: Smart Money Is Betting Both Ways at Once The single most important story this week is not one market going extreme. It’s two equity markets going extreme in *opposite directions* simultaneously.
- W1404·05 The S&P Flipped. The Clock Is Ticking. Last week produced the most significant single-week positioning shift in the 104-week dataset, and it happened in the market you almost certainly own the most of. S&P 500 dealer positioning collapsed by the equivalent of 1.32 standard deviations in a single week, the largest one-week deterioration in the entire lookback, flipping the index from a stabilizing regime into an amplifying one.
- March 2026
- W1303·27 The Bond Market Is Screaming, and Nobody’s Listening to Equities The single most important story this week has nothing to do with stocks. The 2-Year Treasury (the market’s live read on Fed policy expectations) just registered the most extreme dealer positioning reading in the entire two-year dataset.
- W1203·22 The Rates Bomb Is Live, and Equities Are One Shock Away From Losing Their Cushion The most important thing to understand about markets right now is this: equities have a cushion, but rates are wired to blow. Across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, dealers are collectively in shock-absorber territory – their hedging flows are dampening volatility, not amplifying it.